COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 31 JULY 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: London copper was underpinned on Thursday by indications that the U.S. Federal Reserve is not hurrying to raise interest rates, even as the world's top economy logged robust second quarter growth that brightened the outlook for demand.

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate crude dropped to a two-week low after a government report showed that U.S. gasoline supplies gained as demand slipped.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold retreated for a fourth day to head for a monthly decline as further signs that the U.S. recovery is gaining momentum strengthened the case for higher borrowing costs in the world’s largest economy.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Building Approvals m/m, CPI Flash Estimate y/y, Challenger Job Cuts y/y, GDP m/m, Unemployment Claims, Employment Cost Index q/q, Chicago PMI, Natural Gas Storage.

Post by Palak Mishara.

COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 30 JULY 2014

BASE METAL WRAP:  

Copper prices slipped on Tuesday, as prospects of growing supplies overshadowed encouraging signs of health in the global economy, and zinc retreated after hovering near three-year highs on expectations of a tightening market.

ENERGY WRAP: 

West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the lowest price in two weeks before government data that may signal the strength of fuel consumption in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil user. Brent fell in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: 

Gold traded near the lowest level this week and was poised for a monthly decline as signs that U.S. economic growth is gaining momentum countered haven demand from increased tension in Ukraine and Gaza.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: 

German Prelim CPI m/m, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Advance GDP q/q, Advance GDP Price Index q/q, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Statement, Federal Funds Rate.

Markets open flat; L&T down over 6%

ITC, Bharti Airtel, Infosys and Reliance Industries among the top gainers

After opening in red, the benchmark indices moved into the green territory on account of gains in heavyweights like ITC, Bharti Airtel, Infosys and Reliance Industries.

At 0920 hrs, the Sensex was up nine points at 25,999 and the Nifty was unchanged at 7749.

The broader markets were flat with a positive bias.

Sectors & Stocks

On the sectoral front, Capital Goods index was the top loser down 4% along with Realty and Metal indices down 0.4% each.
A 6% cut on L&T dragged the capital goods index lower as the performance of engineering and construction major’s core business in the June quarter disappointed the Street, as execution remained weak in the domestic business.
Apart from L&T, Sesa Sterlite, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Steel, BHEL, Maruti Suzuki and Sun Pharma were some of the notable names in red, down 0.2-2%.
Among the gainers was Bharti Airtel up 4% after reporting 61% year-on-year jump in consolidated net profit at Rs 1,108 crore for the first quarter.

COMMODITY MARKET OUTLOOK 28 JULY 2014

 Agri Commodity Market

CS CHANA (AUGUST) OVERVIEW:
TREND  CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:2795
SUP2:2740
RESIST1:2900
RESIST2:2926
TRADING STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
WWW.CAPITALSTARS.COM +917316790000

CS JEERA (AUGUST) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:11250
SUP2:11000
RESIST1:11620
RESIST2:11780
TRADING STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
WWW.CAPITALSTARS.COM +917316790000

CS TURMERIC (AUGUST) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:6420
SUP2:6316
RESIST1:6600
RESIST2:6700
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
WWW.CAPITALSTARS.COM +917316790000

CS SOYABEAN (OCTOBER) OVERVIEW:
TREND  CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:3660
SUP2:3600
RESIST1:3750
RESIST2:3860
TRADING STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
WWW.CAPITALSTARS.COM +917316790000

bullion Commodity market

CS COPPER (AUG) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:430
SUP2:425       
RESIST1:437
RESIST2:440
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
WWW.CAPITALSTARS.COM +917316790000

CS CRUDE (AUGUST) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:6090
SUP2:6010
RESIST1:6230
RESIST2:6300
TRADING STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
WWW.CAPITALSTARS.COM +917316790000

CS GOLD (AUG) OVERVIEW:   
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:27550
SUP2:27300
RESIST1:28100
RESIST2:28400
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
WWW.CAPITALSTARS.COM +917316790000

CS SILVER (SEPTEMBER) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:43600
SUP2:42900   
RESIST1:44800
RESIST2:45300
TRADING STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
WWW.CAPITALSTARS.COM +917316790000

COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 28 JULY 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: 

Copper dropped for a second day after Freeport-McMoRan Inc. received approval from Indonesia to resume exports from its Grasberg mine.

ENERGY WRAP: 

West Texas Intermediate crude fell for the fourth time in five days amid speculation that economic data may signal slowing growth in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent also dropped in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: 

Hedge funds increased their bets on a gold rally, just before prices fell for a second week as an accelerating U.S. economy outweighed concern that violence between Russia and Ukraine will escalate.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: 

Flash Services PMI, Pending Home Sales m/m.

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COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 25 JULY 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Copper futures rallied to a more than one-week high on Thursday, as investors cheered better than expected manufacturing data out of China, the world’s largest consumer of the red metal.

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate headed for the third weekly decline this month amid speculation that rising U.S. gasoline stockpiles signal reduced demand in the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent was steady in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold headed for its second straight weekly decline as the outlook for improving economic growth curbed demand for the precious metal as a haven.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: ANZ Business Confidence, German Ifo Business Climate, Prelim GDP q/q, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m.

COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 24 JULY 2014

BASE METAL WRAP:  

Copper climbed for a fourth day, the longest rally in three weeks, on better-than-expected manufacturing data from China, the world’s largest user of industrial metals.

ENERGY WRAP: 

West Texas Intermediate swung between gains and losses after U.S. government data showed crude supplies at the delivery point for New York contracts shrank to the lowest level since 2008. Brent was steady in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: 

Gold fell to the lowest level in a week as a rally in equities damped demand for an alternative investment amid concern that physical consumption is faltering.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH:  

Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Rate Statement, Trade Balance, HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, Retail Sales m/m, Unemployment Claims, Flash Manufacturing PMI, New Home Sales, Natural Gas Storage.

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COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 23 JULY 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: 

Zinc and aluminium prices hit their highest in more than a year as investors sought exposure to commodities with improved fundamentals, but copper's gains were curbed by worries over China's property sector and over a build-up of stocks.

ENERGY WRAP: 

West Texas Intermediate crude fell for a second day after an industry report showed gasoline supplies expanded in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent was steady in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: 

Gold traded below the highest level in more than three months as investors assessed U.S. economic data that strengthened the dollar and boosted equities, damping demand for an alternative investment.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH:  

CPI q/q, MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, BOE Gov Carney Speaks, Core Retail Sales m/m, Crude Oil Inventories.

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COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 22 JULY 2014

BASE METAL WRAP:  

Aluminum entered a bull market in London and traded near the highest in 16 months on speculation demand will exceed supply for the metal used in everything from cars to packaging.

ENERGY WRAP: 

West Texas Intermediate rose for a second day before stockpile data that may signal the strength of fuel demand in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent also increased in London. Natural gas futures slipped in New York to the lowest price in more than seven months as meteorologists predicted mild weather, which would curtail demand from power plants and help narrow a stockpile deficit.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: 

Gold traded below the highest level in more than three months as the dollar strengthened amid the outlook for higher U.S. borrowing costs, countering haven demand fueled by tension in Ukraine and Gaza.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: 

Core CPI m/m, CPI m/m, HPI m/m, Existing Home Sales, Richmond Manufacturing Index, CPI q/q, Trimmed Mean CPI q/q.

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COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 21 JULY 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: London copper held near its lowest in three weeks on Monday, hemmed in by nagging worries over China's property sector and a big Chinese stock build that highlighted an expected market surplus in the second half.

ENERGY WRAP: Brent swung between gains and losses amid speculation that the downing of a Malaysian Air jet will have no impact on supplies from Russia, the world’s largest energy exporter. West Texas Intermediate was steady in New York. Natural gas futures in the U.S. dropped for a third day to the lowest level in almost eight months as inventories rebounded at the quickest rate since 2001.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold traded little changed after the first weekly loss in seven as investors weighed the outlook for higher U.S. borrowing costs against demand for a haven amid unrest in Ukraine and Gaza. Palladium was near a 13-year high.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: German PPI m/m.

COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 18 JULY 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Copper futures fell to a two-week low, as jitters over a possible bond default in China's construction sector weighed.

                                                                     

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate rose the most in a month after a Malaysian Airways jet was shot down in Ukraine. Prices also climbed as U.S. crude supplies fell as refiners boosted processing to the highest level since 2005.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold retreated after the biggest advance in a month as investors weighed the outlook for U.S. monetary policy against increased geopolitical tensions around the world. Palladium dropped from a 13-year high.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Core CPI m/m, Wholesale Sales m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, CB Leading Index m/m.

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COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 17 JULY 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Most industrial metals fell as copper dropped to a two-week low after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast commodities will drop over the next five years on increasing supplies.

                                                                     

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate rose for a second day after U.S. crude stockpiles fell as refiners in the world’s biggest oil consumer boosted processing to the highest level since 2005. Brent was steady in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold held above a three-week low amid signs of increased demand in China and India, the world’s two largest consumers. Palladium futures climbed to the highest level since 2001.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Building Permits, Unemployment Claims, Housing Starts, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Natural Gas Storage.

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COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 16 JULY 2014

BASE METAL WRAP:

Zinc climbed to trade near a 35-month high amid shrinking stockpiles after economic growth expanded more than estimated in China, the world’s biggest consumer of base metals.

ENERGY WRAP:

West Texas Intermediate rebounded from the lowest price since May as China’s economic growth exceeded forecasts and crude stockpiles shrank in the U.S., signaling increased demand from the world’s two biggest oil consumers. Brent was steady in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP:

Gold held below $1,300 an ounce as the outlook for higher borrowing costs in the U.S. strengthened the dollar and damped demand for an alternative investment. Silver rebounded after two days of losses.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH:

CPI q/q, GDP q/y, Industrial Production y/y, Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y, NBS Press Conference, Retail Sales y/y, Average Earnings Index 3m/y, Claimant Count Change, Unemployment Rate, Manufacturing Sales m/m, PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, TIC Long-Term Purchases, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production m/m, BOC Monetary Policy Report, BOC Rate Statement, Overnight Rate, Fed Chair Yellen Testifies, NAHB Housing Market Index, Crude Oil Inventories, BOC Press Conference, FOMC Member Fisher Speaks, Beige Book.

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COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 15 JULY 2014

BASE METAL WRAP:  

Copper futures ended lower on Monday as steep losses in gold and coming Chinese economic data unnerved some traders. Rising stocks deter investors from betting copper higher.

ENERGY WRAP: 

West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the lowest price in two months before inventory data that may signal the strength of fuel demand in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent was steady in London. Twelve weeks of above-average gains in U.S. natural gas supply are easing concern over winter fuel shortages and spurring speculators to cut their bets on rising prices.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: 

Gold held above a one-month low on speculation the biggest decline this year may spur demand as holdings in the largest exchange-traded product backed by the metal expanded to the highest level since April.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y, New Loans, M2 Money Supply y/y, Monetary Policy Statement, BOJ Press Conference, CPI y/y, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, BOE Gov Carney Speaks, Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Import Prices m/m, Fed Chair Yellen Testifies, Business Inventories m/m.

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COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 14 JULY 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: London copper was marking time on Monday following four weeks of gains driven by tightening supply, with summer holidays in the northern hemisphere muting trade.

ENERGY WRAP: Brent crude traded near the lowest price in three months as Libya’s oil output continued to increase, easing the threat of supply disruptions from the Middle East. West Texas Intermediate was steady in New York.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold dropped from a four-month high as investors weighed signs that the rally may be excessive after six weeks of gains and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. restated a forecast for lower prices. Silver, platinum and palladium fell.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Industrial Production m/m, ECB President Draghi Speaks.

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