COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 25 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP:  

Copper in Shanghai swung between gains and losses near the highest in almost four weeks after stockpiles fell the most since May and before housing data in the U.S., the second-biggest consumer of industrial metals.

ENERGY WRAP: 

Brent fell for a second day amid speculation that Middle East crude supplies will remain safe amid turmoil across the region. West Texas Intermediate was steady after a technical issue disrupted electronic trading.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: 

Investors are exiting the gold market on speculation that signs of sustained U.S. economic growth will push the Federal Reserve closer to raising interest rates, cutting demand for bullion as an inflation hedge.

                                             

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH:  

German Ifo Business Climate, Flash Services PMI, New Home Sales.

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COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 19 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Copper in London traded near the highest price in almost a week after data showed confidence among U.S. homebuilders reached the most in seven months and as investors look ahead to Chinese manufacturing data.

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate rose for the second time in three days before supply data that may signal the strength of fuel demand in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent was steady in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold held below $1,300 an ounce after two days of losses on optimism that the U.S. recovery is gaining traction while tensions ease in Ukraine and the Middle East. Palladium traded near a 13-year high and platinum rose.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, CPI y/y, Building Permits, CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m, Housing Starts.

                                                                                                                                                                       

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Top Corporate News 18 August 2014

• Jubilant FoodWorks surges as Bofa start with Buy rating

Jubilant Food Works rose nearly 6%, after Bank of America Merrill Lynch starts coverage with a Buy rating and a target of Rs1,375. The company in a sweet spot in the large and high-growth quick service restaurants market.

• ITC slips on buzz of anti-tobacco laws

ITC fell nearly 3% on reports the Centre is planning to introduce tougher provisions under law to curb tobacco consumption in the country.

• Tata Motors jumps 3% on JLR July sales

Shares of Tata Motors jumped 3 percent, riding on its Jaguar Land Rover July sales number. The luxury car business sold 39467 units (up 12.2 percent) as compared to 35162 units in the same period last fiscal.

• Tata Power jumps 4%, MERC grants 25-yr distribution licence

Shares of Tata Power jumped over 4 percent as state electricity regulator Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission (MERC) has granted 25 years distribution licence to Tata Power for supplying power in city and suburban areas.

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COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 18 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: COPPER futures were up on the London Metal Exchange Friday, rebounding from the previous session's slump amid renewed hopes that central banks will step in to boost economic growth.

ENERGY WRAP: Brent crude fell amid speculation that threats to Middle East oil supplies are easing. West Texas Intermediate declined in New York. Refinery breakdowns from Kansas to Texas are giving gasoline a boost, spurring speculators to increase bullish bets for the first time in six weeks as the Labor Day holiday approaches.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold decreased for a second day as the outlook for an improving U.S. economy outweighed tension in Ukraine. Silver fell to a two-month low, while palladium retreated from the highest level in more than 13 years.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y, NAHB Housing Market Index.

                                                                                                                                                                       

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INDIAN BENCHMARK open trading session on a flat note following mixed Global cues.

INDIAN BENCHMARK open trading session on a flat note following mixed Global cues.   

FURTHER, JSW Steel will acquire smaller rival Welspun Maxsteel for about Rs1,000 crore as to source cheaper raw material, cut production costs and strengthen its presence in the northern and western markets.

DHFL has announced that the Committee of the Board of Directors at its meeting held on August 14, 2014, has allotted 43,914 fully paid up equity shares of 10 each to eligible employees of the Company.    

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 192cr in the cash segment on Thursday while the DIIs were net sellers of Rs. 135cr, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.

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Indian Benchmarks Mark Nearly 2-1/2 Week Closing High Ahead Of Modi's Independence Day Speech

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS rose for a fourth consecutive session to its highest close in nearly two-and-a-half weeks.

• Further, India’s wholesale price (WPI) inflation eased to a five-month low in July, helped by a moderation in fuel costs. The WPI rose 5.19% year-on-year last month, its slowest pace since February. In June, prices rose 5.43% from a year earlier.

• Financial Technologies has announced the results for the quarter ended June 30, 2014 net profit of the company rose by 57.92% to Rs128.25 crore Vs Rs81.21 crore YoY.

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7800 and above this 7840. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7740 and next support will be 7695.

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INDIAN BENCHMARKS ended flat ,late recovery.

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS end flat amid choppy trading session as investors turned cautious on lower industrial growth and rising CPI in July. Heavy selling led the Indian stock markets to slip in to the negative territory during the day.

·         Further, Jaiprakash Associates fell 9.16%, after the company posted a net loss of Rs80.61 crore in Q1 June 2014 compared with net profit Rs334.51 crore in Q1 June 2013.

·         Bank of Baroda fell 3.73%, after the central bank restricted foreign institutional investors from buying additional shares in the bank as their shareholding has reached the limit.

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7760 and above this 7790. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7695 and next support will be 7655.

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TOP CORPORATE NEWS 13 AUGUST 2014

·        Tata Steel Q1 profit plunges 70% on provision, higher tax

Tata Steel has reported a 70.4 percent decline in consolidated net profit at Rs 337.3 crore for the April-June quarter, impacted by provision for impairment of non-current assets, higher tax expenses and interest cost. Profit in the year-ago period was Rs 1,139 crore.

·        Crompton Greaves sells Kanjurmarg land to Runwal Group

Crompton Greaves has sold its Kanjurmarg land parcel to Runwal Group for Rs1,015 crore. The 34-acre land parcel has been on the block for a while now. The deal pegs per acre land value at Rs 30 crore. Crompton Greaves has been looking for funds as its debt stands at Rs2,200-2,500 crore.

·        Siemens posts Q3 profit at Rs 13 cr, revenue falls 10%

Siemens has reported the third quarter (April-June) net profit at Rs 13 crore on lower revenue and weak operational performance. It had posted a loss of Rs 48.8 crore in the year-ago period.

·        Hindustan Copper Q1 net profit down by 29% (YoY)

Hindustan Copper has announced the results for the quarter ended June 30, 2014. Net profit of the company slipped by 28.91% to Rs13.20 crore Vs Rs18.57 crore YoY. Total Income increased by 28.15% to Rs314.94 crore Vs Rs245.75 crore YoY.

INDIAN BENCHMARKS mark second consecutive weekly fall on geopolitical concerns

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS flat-to-lower as investors eye global factors. Concerns about potential U.S. strikes on Iraq and tensions between the West and Russia are among geo-political risk factors.

·         Further, JSW Steel reported Crude Steel Production for July 2014, at 11.13 lac tonnes showing growth of 12% over corresponding month of previous year.

·         Corporation Bank  net profit slipped 38.8 percent year-on-year to Rs 231.4 crore in the quarter ended June 2014 dented by lower net interest income and other income, and higher provisions

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7600 and above this 7680. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7540 and next support will be 7460.

COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 08 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Copper headed for a second weekly decline after imports by China, the biggest user of the metal, fell to the lowest since April 2013.

ENERGY WRAP: Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed for a second day after U.S. President Barack Obama authorized air strikes in Iraq, the second-biggest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold advanced to the highest level in three weeks, poised to snap the longest run of weekly losses since September, as haven demand increased on unrest in the Middle East and tension over Ukraine.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Consumer Credit m/m, RBA Monetary Policy Statement, Trade Balance, Monetary Policy Statement, BOJ Press Conference, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Wholesale Inventories m/m.

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INDIAN BENCHMARKS ended with losses, highly volatile trading session… Nifty ends below 7650

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS fell second straight day with highly volatile trading session. The indices which flirted in the green zone for a while saw a sudden bout of selling in the second half.

·         Further, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.’s credit rating has been upgraded to AAA, by Credit Analysis & Research Ltd. (CARE). The rating agency assigned its highest ‘CARE AAA’ level of rating for the long-term bank facilities of M&M.

·         Bharti Infratel slumped 7.07%, as the floor price for offer for sale of shares by promoter Bharti Airtel was set at a discount to the stock's ruling market price.

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7750 and above this 7840. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7620 and next support will be 7595.

TOP CORPORATE NEWS

·        Jubilant Food Q1 net down 19%, same store sales contracts

Jubilant Foodworks has first quarter (April-June) net profit falling 18.5 percent to Rs 27.7 crore compared to Rs 34 crore in the year-ago period, impacted by weak operational performance.

·        India Cements Q1 cuts loss to Rs 3 cr

India Cements has posted a net loss of Rs 2.96 crore in the quarter ended June 2014 as against profit of Rs 16.8 crore in the year-ago period but the loss was reduced compared to loss of 30.56 crore in January-March quarter.

·        Jubilant Industries drops on poor Q1 nos

Jubilant Industries slipped nearly 17% after reporting a consolidated net loss of Rs18.90 crore for the first quarter ended June 30, 2014 (Q1), due to lower operational income and higher interest cost. The agrochemicals company had loss of Rs16.96 crore in the same quarter last fiscal.

·        Rail stocks suge after Cabinet clears 100% FDI in railways

Shares of railways have rallied after the Union Cabinet cleared the proposal to allow 100% foreign direct investment (FDI) in railway infrastructure.

COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 07 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP:  

Copper prices fell to their lowest level in more than five weeks Wednesday, pressured by a stronger dollar and concerns about growth in China, the world's largest consumer of the metal.

ENERGY WRAP: 

West Texas Intermediate crude swung between gains and losses near a six-month low before trade data that will signal the strength of the economy in China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer. Brent was steady.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: 

Gold held gains after the biggest advance in three weeks as tensions flared over Ukraine, increasing demand for a haven. Palladium climbed.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: 

Employment Change q/q, Unemployment Rate, Asset Purchase Facility, Official Bank Rate, MPC Rate Statement, Minimum Bid Rate, Building Permits m/m, ECB Press Conference, Unemployment Claims, Ivey PMI, Natural Gas Storage.

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COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 06 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: London copper fell to its lowest level in two weeks and Shanghai prices slid nearly 1 percent, reflecting investor caution as weakness in China's services sector cast doubts on its economic recovery momentum.

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate rose for a second time in three days after an industry report showed crude stockpiles declined in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil user. Brent climbed in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Silver futures fell to a six-week low as the dollar’s advance reduced the appeal of commodities as alternative investments. Gold, platinum and palladium dropped.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Employment Change q/q, Unemployment Rate, Manufacturing Production m/m, Trade Balance, Trade Balance, Crude Oil Inventories.

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COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 05 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Copper rose on Monday as a rally in China's stock markets indicated improving prospects for demand in the world's largest consumer of the industrial metal, although growing global supplies kept investors cautious.

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the highest price in three days before supply data that will signal the strength of fuel demand in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent in London was steady.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold held below $1,300 an ounce as Portugal’s bailout of Banco Espirito Santo SA reduced concern the lender’s crisis may spread and tension in Gaza eased, damping demand for a haven. Silver rose from a six-week low.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Trade Balance, HSBC Services PMI, Cash Rate, RBA Rate Statement, Services PMI, Final Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders m/m, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism.

Sensex hovers around 25,600; auto stocks gain

Rate sensitives gain ahead of RBI's policy review tomorrow

Markets were firm in early noon trades supported by gains in interest sensitives ahead of RBI's policy review tomorrow. At 1205 hrs, the Sensex was up 132 points at 25,613 and the Nifty gained 50 points to trade at 7,652.

In the broader market, the smallcap index outperformed the BSE benchmark with gains of 1%. Meanwhile, the midcap index was up 0.6%.

The rupee is trading at 60.90/91 versus Friday's close of 61.18/19, tracking losses in the dollar compared with most other Asian currencies. The pair is seen in 60.80 to 61.20 range during the session.

Sectors & Stocks

Health Care index down 0.2% was the only sectoral index in red.
Consumer Durables, Auto, IT indices were up 1-2.5%.
Banking index up 0.5% have come off day highs.
HDFC twins, Sun Pharma, Coal India, Bharti Airtel and Cipla down 0.8-1.7% were the losers among Sensex-30.

COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 04 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: London copper was a tad firmer on Monday after weak U.S. employment data soothed concerns that the Federal Reserve would soon begin to draw back liquidity that has cushioned demand for metals.

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the lowest price in six months before data that will signal the strength of the economy in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent was steady in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: A slew of worries fueled by U.S. and European data, Argentina's default on its debts and conflict in Ukraine and in the Middle East sent investors rushing to safe-harbor gold positions on Friday.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Retail Sales m/m, Construction PMI, Loan Officer Survey.

COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 01 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: London copper eased on Friday after a rout on Wall Street over Argentinian default soured risk appetite and ahead of a deluge of economic indicators out later in the session, including an assessment of activity in China's vast manufacturing sector.

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate fell for a fifth day after capping the biggest monthly decline in more than two years amid signs of weaker fuel demand in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent was steady in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold headed for a third weekly loss in the longest run of declines since September as U.S. employment data may add to signs that the world’s largest economy is gaining traction.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Manufacturing PMI, PPI q/q, HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI, BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks, Manufacturing PMI, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Personal Income m/m, Final Manufacturing PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Total Vehicle Sales.

Weak global cues drag Sensex lower by 150 pts

Markets started the August series on a negative note with the Sensex down over 150 points owing to weak global cues. Selling pressure was visible across the sectors.

At 0920 hrs, the Sensex was down 159 points at 25,736 and the Nifty was down 55 points at 7,666.

The broader markets were no exception to the trend. The mid and smallcap indices dropped 0.7% in opening trades.

Sectors & Stocks

Power, Realty and capital Goods indices down 1% each were the major sectoral losers.

IT, Auto, Consumer Durables, Oil & Gas and Bankex indices slipped a little over 0.5% each.

Only six of the 30 stocks were in green on the Sensex.

Bharti Airtel up 2.5% continued its uptrend on reports that the company will sell more infrastructure in Africa. This is to reduce debt and cut capital expenditure on passive infrastructure.

Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki, Cipla, Coal India and Hero MotoCorp up 0.2-0.7% rounded off the gainers list.

The market breadth was weak on the BSE. 906 stocks declined while 483 stocks advanced.

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