INDIAN BENCHMARKS end tad lower amid consolidation.

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS ended with marginal losses, amid a lacklustre trading session, as investors booked profits after the sharp rally yesterday which saw the Sensex and Nifty hitting fresh record highs. The losses were led by oil and gas shares.

Further, Ranbaxy Laboratories has gained 3.8%, its highest level since November 2012 after after USFDA granted approval to Ranbaxy's subsidiary Ohm Laboratories to manufacture and sell generic Diovan in the US. Sesa Sterlite closed 2% higher after the company was permitted to resume production in the Goa state in September.

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7755 and above this 7785. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7675 and next support will be 7620.

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India interim Budget 2014-14: Gold import duty may fall by 2%

Chidambaram may address the issues related to slowdwon in the economy while some people expeced relaxation in import curbs on gold in view of the persistent demand from gem and jewellery industry.

NEW DELHI (Commodity Online): 

 India' Finance Minsiter P Chidambaram's last budget before the term of the ministry comes to an end is expected to have some populist measures with an eye on elections but at the same time an uneventful affair as it is an interim budget to approve expenditure for four months beyond March 31. Market expects gold import duty to be eased by 2% from the current 10% in view of success attained in containing current account deficit (CAD).

Chidambaram will no doubt highlight the achievements of the government in containing Current Account Deficit and fiscal deficit. The fiscal deficit is likely to have been fallen to 4.8% of the GDP or lower by postponing expenditure and advancing income. Huge dividend payout from public sector companies and windfall from spectrum allocation is expected to bring some balance to government's financila position.

Chidambaram may address the issues related to slowdwon in the economy while some people expeced relaxation in import curbs on gold in view of the persistent demand from gem and jewellery industry.

Some of the sectors expecting relief are automobilies, mining and agriculture.

All in all, Chidambaram would take this chance to go down the history as a finance minister who dared to stick to fiscal consolidation ahead of an election. Only for this reason, he is unlikely to make any populist announcements, apart from some minor ones like cut in import tax on gold, according to leading columnist Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar in Economic Times.

Official figures clearly show that based on his own budget estimates for 2013-14, the country's fiscal deficit touched phenomenal Rs.5,16,390 crore during April- December, India Today reported.

Some of the recent pupulist measures could put strain on government finances including deferment of decision to hike diesel prices. The export subsidy for sugar announced due to pressure from Agriculture Minsitry is expected set the national chequer back by around Rs 1400 cr.

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FMC said the new directive was to ensure greater efficiencies and allow the market participants to derive the benefit of lower costs. 

MUMBAI (Commodity Online): 

India's commodity market regulator, Forward Markets Commission (FMC) has allowed commodity exchanges to levy differential transaction charges based on commodities and or trade timings.

In a new directive that overrules the earlier directives of 2005 and 2009 disallowing levy of differential transaction charges, FMC said that the new directive is in repsonse to representation suggesting differential transactions charges for delivery based and non-delivery based commodities contracts, as substantial investments is required to be made by Exchanges to provide for an efficient delivery mechanism by way of warehousing and assaying infrastructure. Thus, there is inherent merit in implementing a differential transaction charge structure because the cost of offering delivery based contracts is substantially higher than the cost of offering non-delivery based contracts. There is also a need to promote competition in the market to bring in greater efficiencies and lower transaction costs to market participants., FMC said.

FMC said the new directive was to ensure greater efficiencies and allow the market participants to derive the benefit of lower costs. The Exchanges have been directed to make necessary amendments to the Bye-laws, Business Rules and Regulations in order to incorporate the above directions of the Commission and submit a compliance report in this regard by 20th February, 2014

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WEEKLY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT-15 Feb 2014

Investment Market Trends

Weak Dollar, safe haven buying helps Gold rally above $1300, Silver $21 Nat Gas

John J Hardy of Saxo Bank said that precious metals made pronounced gains challenging key technical levels. Weak dollar and US retail sales data laso weighed on market sentiments boosting risky and precious assets on 

LONDON (Commodity Online): 

The week saw gold climbing over $1300 while silver poked its head above $21 levels attaining the highest level since mid-November.

John J Hardy of Saxo Bank said that precious metals made pronounced gains challenging key technical levels. Weak dollar and US retail sales data laso weighed on market sentiments boosting risky and precious assets on the possible implicationof FEd polcy. Meanwhile, menacing winter weatehr saw spot natural gas ripping higher on the week, John J Hardy said.

Energy markets in the US remain squarely in focus on yet another wave of extreme winter weather blasting the northeastern and eastern portion of the country, which is the most heavily populated. The front March Natural Gas contract pushed back above the 5.00 dollar level in very volatile trading. Meanwhile, daily closes in the back months have remained capped by the technically significant 4.65 area, which is a 100% extension of the previous rally from the November lows.

The March to April roll is a seasonally critical one as the timing of the US winter’s end is at stake. These two months could continue to swing wildly as they have recently as weather forecasters hold the market in their thrall. Inventories are at their lowest level for this time of the year in 10 years for key areas of the country and with yet another large draw last week of -237 BCF before another round of cold extremes hit this week. Traders will need to tread carefully as the risk of a combination of low inventories and an unusually long winter could stretch prices and spreads in wild swings. The timing of the switch to building inventories from drawing on them will be critical.

WTI Crude was about flat for the week but is still trading at very high levels just under 100 dollars a barrel and thus close to the highs of the range since October as cold weather remains a focus rather than risks to demand from spotty and inconsistent US data. The irony here could be that weather is both boosting energy prices and weakening the economic data, which would normally act as a headwind on prices. Products were generally higher on further draws on inventories. The WTI/Brent spread shrank to its lowest level by later in the week, at just below 8.50 dollars/bbl., since last October on the North American weather focus. US Crude stocks have come off their lows and remain at the upper end of their five-year range, though distillates and propane are extremely low on exceptional demand driven by cold weather. 

India's Sugar export subsidy to arrest the fall in prices:CRISIL

At the all-India level, average sugarcane cost as a percentage of sugar prices is expected to reach nearly 100% in the current season from 86% in the last. Despite significant inventory levels at the beginning of the 

MUMBAI (Commodity Online): India government’s decision to give a subsidy of Rs 3.33 per kg on exports of 4 million tonnes (mt) of raw sugar over the next 2 years will reverse the trend of falling domestic sugar prices and provide some respite to the manufacturers, CRISIL Research estimates.

An expected 1.5 mt decline in sugar production in the current sugar season (October-September) due to lower cane output is also likely to support sugar prices.

CRISIL Research expects ex-mill (Maharashtra) sugar prices to increase from Rs 26 or so currently to Rs 29 per kg by the end of the season – a jump of over 10%.

The growing disparity between sugarcane and sugar prices has severely affected domestic sugar mills in the last couple of years. As many as 29 sugar companies, together accounting for a quarter of domestic production, had posted net losses of Rs 18 billion for the 2012-13 sugar season, mainly because of high sugarcane prices and high interest costs.

These losses are expected to worsen in the current season as domestic prices have declined a further 16% in the first 4 months of the current season and are currently at a 27-month low.

At the all-India level, average sugarcane cost as a percentage of sugar prices is expected to reach nearly 100% in the current season from 86% in the last. Despite significant inventory levels at the beginning of the 2013-14 season, the players were unable to export since the export realisations were Rs 2.00-2.50 per kg lower than domestic prices due to weak international prices.

Says Rahul Prithiani, Director – Industry Research, CRISIL Research,"With the export subsidy, nearly 1.5 mt of sugar is expected to be exported in the 2013-14 sugar season. This, coupled with a 1.5 mt year-on-year fall in domestic production due to a likely decrease in cane output will result in a decline in inventory levels. This, in turn, will lead to a Rs 2-3 per kg increase in sugar prices by September 2014. Hence, the loss for sugar companies is expected to halve from current levels of around Rs 6 per kg on domestic sugar sales by the end of this season. But even with this increase, average prices for the current season will still be 5-10% lower than the last due to weak prices in October-January."

Happily for manufacturers, the upward momentum in prices is expected to sustain through the 2014-15 sugar season. Given their continued losses, CRISIL believes the cash flows of sugar mills will remain stressed in the current sugar season. This, coupled with a delay in disbursement of interest subvention loans due to high leverage of companies, will result in relatively lower payment to farmers in the first half of the season.

Says Prasad Koparkar, Senior Director – Industry and Customised Research, CRISIL Research, "With the rise in arrears, farmers are likely to shift to other crops, resulting in lower acreage under sugarcane cultivation, leading to a decline in sugar production and inventory levels in the 2014-15 sugar season. Consequently, sugar prices are expected to move higher."

Return of positive trend in commodity indices in Jan: DB

Last year, commodities were the worst performing asset class on a total returns basis with returns on the DJUBSCI declining 9.6% for the full year.

LONDON (Commodity Online): After showing a dismal performance in 2013, commodity indices turned positive in January helped by better performance of precious metals and live stock sectors while energy and industrial metals continued to suffer.

Deutsche Bank said in a monthly report that heaviest losses happened in industrial metals and agricultural sectors exposed to general drawdwon in gloabl equity markets as well as financial market weakness across a number of emerign market countries.

In agricultural markets, rising production particularly as it relates to the South American crop is sustaining the decline in agricultural returns as inventories across the complex are rebuilt. However, there have been pockets of strength with US natural gas, heating oil, coffee and cocoa among the strongest performers. Despite the strong gains in parts of the energy complex, helped by extreme cold weather in the US, these have been insufficient to offset losses earlier in the month. 

Last year, commodities were the worst performing asset class on a total returns basis with returns on the DJUBSCI declining 9.6% for the full year. In comparison to other asset classes, the first month of 2014 has been relatively kind to commodities compared to the losses suffered on benchmark equity and EM indices.

COMMODITY MARKET TREND-14 FEB. 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: -Copper prices fell Thursday amid weaker U.S. economic data and as some investors chose to lock in gains made on a recent rally.
CS CRUDE (FEB.) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:6160
SUP2:6040
RESIST1:6368
RESIST2:6470
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
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ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate crude headed for a fifth weekly gain, the longest rally in a year, as a U.S. winter storm bolstered energy demand in the world’s biggest oil consumer. Natural gas futures are heading for the first weekly gain since Jan. 24 in New York as frigid weather spurs demand for heating fuel, sending inventories to a 10-year seasonal low.
CS GOLD (APRIL) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:29100
SUP2:28900
RESIST1:29480
RESIST2:29980
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
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PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold headed for the biggest weekly advance since October as U.S. economic data that trailed estimates increased haven demand, with holdings in the biggest exchange-traded product expanding to a two-month high. Silver was set for the longest rally since March 2008.
CS SILVER (MARCH) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:44800
SUP2:44150   
RESIST1:45950
RESIST2:46550
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
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GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: CPI y/y,  Manufacturing Sales m/m, Import Prices m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production m/m, Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.
CS COPPER (FEB.) OVERVIEW:
TREND CONSOLIDATE
SUP1:442
SUP2:440
RESIST1:449
RESIST2:453
TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS
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INDIAN COMMODITY MARKET OUTLOOK-14 FEB 2014

INDIAN BENCHMARK opened higher tracking mixed global cues, after breaking its three-day winning streak yesterday. Telecom companies will remain in focus. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd announced that the US FDA has granted its subsidiary final approval for its Abbreviated New Drug Application to market a generic version of Temodar, Temozolomide Capsules, 5 mg, 20 mg, 100 mg, 140 mg, 180 mg and 250 mg

FURTHER, Indian Oil Corporation Ltd has posted a net loss of Rs. 9614.50 mn for the quarter ended December 31, 2013 as compared to net profit of Rs. 33319.60 million for the quarter ended December 31, 2012. Bharti Airtel acquired 115 MHz of airwaves in 15 circles in the 1800 MHz band and three circles in the 900 MHz bands for a total of Rs185.3bn.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs.399cr in the cash segment on Thursday while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers of Rs. 292cr, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.

Local stock market loses momentum on job figures news

The local share market lost all its early momentum after some much weaker-than-expected employment figures for January were released by the Bureau of Statistics. 

The data revealed the unemployment rate had jumped from 5.8 per cent to a 10-year-high of 6 per cent, and that 3,700 jobs were lost last month.

On average, economists had expected the jobless rate to remain steady and 15,000 jobs to have been created.

The dollar immediately tumbled and investor sentiment soured.

The All Ordinaries Index has closed down one point to hit 5,319 and the ASX 200 has lost two points to finish at 5,308.

There have been a number of corporate profit results published today.

Telstra has posted a 9 per cent rise in its half-year profit to $1.7 billion.

Telstra says it experienced solid growth in its mobile customer base over the six months to the end of December.

The company's shares have gained four cents to reach $5.15.

The country's primary share market operator, the Australian Securities Exchange has announced an 11 per cent rise in its half-year profit.

ASX has made $189.6 million for the six months to the end of December.

Its shares have gained 1.6 per cent.

The toll road operator, Transurban Group has seen its profit inch up to $81 million during the six months to the end of last year.

That is up just 0.1 per cent compared to its profit for the same period the year before. It has added one cent to its share price today to hit $6.83.

The online travel booking firm, Webjet, has announced a 60 per cent surge in its half-year profit.

The company's made $9.17 million in the six months to the end of December. Its shares have soared more than 26 per cent to $3.16.

Rio Tinto is expected to announce its full-year profit later today - its shares have slipped 0.4 per cent today.

BHP Billiton has gained a third of a per cent.

Commonwealth Bank shares have fallen more than 0.5 per cent, NAB has given up 0.4 per cent, while Westpac closed a fifth of a per cent lower but ANZ has eked out a one cent gain to reach $30.99.

The Australian dollar has not recovered from its 1 per cent slide after the job figures came out. At 5om (AEDT) it was buying 89.3 US cents.

On the cross-rates, it was worth 65.65 euro cents, 53.77 British pence, 91.2 Japanese yen and $1.07 in New Zealand.

In commodities, West Texas Crude oil is worth $US100.36 a barrel, the price of a barrel Tapis has eased to $US114.14 and spot gold has fallen to $US1,290 an ounce.

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INDIAN COMMODITY MARKET OUTLOOK- 21 JANUARY 2014

INDIAN BENCHMARKS opened marginally higher tracking their peers in Asia. Few results like Colgate Palmolive, Ashok Leyland, Tata Coffee results will be in focus today. Reliance Industries Ltd is planning to start production of natural gas from coal seams, called coal-bed methane in Madhya Pradesh from 2015-16.

FURTHER, NTPC appears determined not to clear dues of Rs20bn to the Coal India without third-party sampling of coal, indicating a protracted tussle ahead over the quality of coal that had led to a stand-off between the two companies for much of last year. Asian Paints fell after consolidated net profit fell 1.75% to Rs 329.35 crore on 13.03% rise in total income to Rs 3481.99 crore in Q3 December 2013 over Q3 December 2012.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs.384cr in the cash segment on Monday while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers of Rs. 310cr, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.

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COMMODITY MARKET TREND - 07 JANUARY 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Copper futures rose for the first time in three sessions amid signs that manufacturing is gaining momentum as inventories of the metal continue to shrink.
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ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the lowest price in more than five weeks amid speculation distillate and gasoline stockpiles increased in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Natural gas futures rose in New York as arctic air sweeping across the U.S. boosted demand for the heating fuel.
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PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold fluctuated after advancing to the highest level in three weeks as investors weighed the outlook for increasing physical consumption in Asia against slowing investment demand.
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GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Fed Chairman Nomination Vote, Trade Balance, CPI Flash Estimate y/y , Trade Balance, Trade Balance, Ivey PMI, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism.

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Agri Commodity Market Update CS CHANA (FEB.) OVERVIEW: TREND CONSOLIDATE SUP1:3078 SUP2:3045 RESIST1:3172     RESIST2:3194 TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS Free Trials CS JEERA (MARCH) OVERVIEW: TREND CONSOLIDATE SUP1:12370 SUP2:12270 RESIST1:12840 RESIST2:13000 TRADING STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE Free Trials CS TURMERIC (APRIL) OVERVIEW: TREND BULLISH SUP1:6720 SUP2:6630 RESIST1:7000 RESIST2:7250 TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS Free Trials CS SOYABEAN (FEB.) OVERVIEW: TREND CONSOLIDATE SUP1:3700 SUP2:3660 RESIST1:3752 RESIST2:3792 TRADING STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE,Free Trials

Bullion Commodity Market Update. CS COPPER (FEB.) OVERVIEW: TREND CONSOLIDATE SUP1:462 SUP2:456 RESIST1:469 RESIST2:474 TRADING STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE Free Trials CS CRUDE (JAN.) OVERVIEW: TREND CONSOLIDATE SUP1:5784 SUP2:5750 RESIST1:5940 RESIST2:6020 TRADING STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE Free Trials CS GOLD (FEB.) OVERVIEW: TREND CONSOLIDATE SUP1:28690 SUP2:28000 RESIST1:29450 RESIST2:29640 TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS Free Trials CS SILVER (MARCH) OVERVIEW: TREND CONSOLIDATE SUP1:44590 SUP2:44000     RESIST1:45950 RESIST2:46700 TRADING STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPSFree Trials

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