COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 04 SEPTEMBER 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Nickel climbed to the highest in almost four weeks after a Philippine lawmaker filed a bill to require all mined minerals to be processed before export.

ENERGY WRAP: Natural gas prices edged lower on Wednesday after weather forecasting models continued to call for milder temperatures to move across the U.S. this weekend, which should cut into the need for air conditioning and thus reduce demand for the commodity at the nation's thermal power plants. Crude oil futures rebounded from the previous session's steep declines on Wednesday, after Kiev said it has reached a deal with Russia for a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold advanced for a second day on speculation that prices near the lowest level since June may encourage purchases as investors assessed tensions in Ukraine and the outlook for higher U.S. borrowing costs.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Retail Sales m/m, Trade Balance, Monetary Policy Statement, German Factory Orders m/m, BOJ Press Conference, Asset Purchase Facility, Official Bank Rate, MPC Rate Statement, Challenger Job Cuts y/y, Minimum Bid Rate, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, Trade Balance, ECB Press Conference, Trade Balance, Unemployment Claims, Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q, Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q, Final Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Natural Gas Storage, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Member Mester Speaks.

COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 26 August 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Aluminium in London climbed for a second day following Alcoa Inc.’s decision to close a smelter in Italy and before durable goods orders data from the U.S., the second-largest consumer of industrial metals.

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate traded near the lowest price in seven months before supply data that will signal the strength of fuel demand in the U.S, the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent was steady in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold held losses near a two-month low on speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise borrowing costs next year, strengthening the dollar and damping demand for an alternative investment.

                                             

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Trade Balance, CB Leading Index m/m, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Durable Goods Orders m/m, HPI m/m, S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y, CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Manufacturing Index.

INDIAN BENCHMARKS down …Late trade sell-off on SC order

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS hit fresh record highs early today ended flat amid selling pressure in metal and power stocks after the Supreme Court said that guidelines were breached in coal block allocations during the UPA government and that the terms of allotment, going as far back as 1993, were themselves illegal.

·         Alstom T&D gained 5.5 percent on joint venture bagging order worth Rs 3,250 crore.

·         Further, Lakshmi Vilas Bank has announced that the Bank opened its Rights Issue for an amount of Rs409.79 crores on August 08, 2014. The issue remained open for 15 days and closed on August 22, 2014.

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7970 and above this 7995. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7895 and next support will be 7855.

COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 14 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: London copper fell on Tuesday to near six-week lows as improving supply and renewed tension between Ukraine and Russia combined with a summer lull to curb investors' appetite for risky assets.

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate fell amid speculation that U.S. oil demand is slowing after a government report showed weekly crude inventories expanded for the time since June. Brent dropped in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold traded little changed below a three-week high as investors gauged the health of the U.S. economy and tensions persisted in Ukraine and the Middle East. Gold demand in China shrank in the second quarter as consumers in the biggest user bought fewer bars, coins and jewelry amid a clampdown on corruption and as the buying spurred by last year’s price slump wasn’t sustained.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Retail Sales q/q, French Prelim GDP q/q, German Prelim GDP q/q, Unemployment Claims, Import Prices m/m, Natural Gas Storage, 30-y Bond Auction.

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COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 13 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Indonesia’s ban on nickel ore exports is resonating globally as prices climb to the highest since 2012, prompting companies from Avebury Nickel Mines Ltd. to Poseidon Nickel Ltd. to restart operations at idled mines.

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate fell for a second day after an industry report showed crude and gasoline supplies expanded in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil user. Brent dropped in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold traded below a three-week high as investors weighed the prospects for renewed fighting in Gaza and simmering tension between Ukraine and Russia against the outlook for the U.S. economy and a stronger dollar. Gold imports by India, the world’s biggest consumer after China, will probably decline for a third year as the government keeps curbs on shipments to prevent the current-account deficit from widening and to support the rupee.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Prelim GDP q/q, New Loans, M2 Money Supply y/y, Industrial Production y/y, Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y, Retail Sales y/y, Average Earnings Index 3m/y, Claimant Count Change, BOE Gov Carney Speaks, BOE Inflation Report, Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m , FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, Business Inventories m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, 10-y Bond Auction.

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Markets open flat; Axis Bank, Hindalco dip 1%

Sensex is down 13 points at 26,074 and the Nifty has lost 11 points to trade at 7,779.

Benchmark indices have opened flat with a negative bias on caution ahead of the expiry of July derivative contracts due later in the day.

 

At 9.15 hrs, the Sensex is down 13 points at 26,074 and the Nifty has lost 11 points to trade at 7,779.

 

The broader markets are trading in line with the benchmark indices. Both the mid and smallcap indices are up 0.2% each.

 

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended higher on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve gave a rosier assessment of the U.S. economy while reaffirming that it is in no hurry to raise interest rates.

 

The U.S. central bank also, as expected, reduced its monthly asset purchases to $25 billion from $35 billion.

 

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI fell 31.75 points, or 0.19 percent, to 16,880.36, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 0.12 points, or 0.01 percent, to 1,970.07, and the Nasdaq Composite .IXICadded 20.20 points, or 0.45 percent, to 4,462.90. The S&P 500 had traded lower ahead of the Fed announcement.

 

Asian markets are trading firm on Thursday following robust US economic data and as investors braced for Argentina to default on its debt for the second time in twelve years.

INDIAN BENCHMARK record highs after Cabinet approval

INDIAN BENCHMARK record highs after Cabinet approval for a higher foreign direct investment limit in insurance and a rejig in foreign debt limits reinforced optimism about the government's reform agenda.

FURTHER, SKS Microfinance reported a flat net profit at Rs 49.3 crore in the April-June quarter over the year-ago period. The company had reported a net profit of Rs 49.69 crore during the same period last year. Tata Steel raised USD 1.5 billion (about Rs 9,000 crore) in a dual tranche bond sale in the international market, making it the largest such deal by the Tata group firm.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 192cr in the cash segment on Thursday while the DIIs were net seller of Rs. 290cr, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.

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INDIAN BENCHMARK started on a very quiet note

INDIAN BENCHMARK started on a very quiet note with the benchmark indices hovering around yesterday's close.

FURTHER, HDFC Bank seeks shareholder approval in order to raise Rs 10,000 crore in the AGM meet to be held later during the day. Reliance Communication plans to raise Rs 4,300 crore by way of a qualified institutional placement of shares and a preferential offer to promoters.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 192cr in the cash segment on Monday while the DIIs were net sellers of Rs. 216cr, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.

TOP CORPORATE NEWS

·        Power Grid up 1%, to invest Rs 5500 cr for upgradation

Shares of Power Grid were up over 1 percent as it is going aggressive in its investment plans. In a board meeting, the central transmission utility has approved investing Rs 5,500 crore. 

                                                                                        

·        Jindal Steel bags Tata-Aldesa order

Jindal Steel and Power Ltd has won a large order to supply around 88,000 tonnes of long rails to the Tata–Aldesa joint venture for use in the Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor.

·        ITC recovers after Monday's slide

ITC rose 2.29% by reports that Union health minister has urged Finance Minister to raise tax on cigarettes in upcoming Union Budget for 2014-15.

·        IRB Infra inks Rs 2,300 cr pact with NHAI for Haryana road

IRB Infrastructure has entered into a pact with National Highways Authority of India (NHAI) for a Rs 2,300 crore project for widening of a highway stretch in Haryana under National Highways Development Project.

INDIAN BENCHMARKS extend losses for third straight day.

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS ended lower for the third straight session as investors turned cautious amid tensions in Iraq even as consumer durables shares stole the limelight tracking rally in gold prices.

Further, Power Finance Corporation has received shareholders approval for raising up to Rs 44,000 crore through issue of securities in the current financial year. IFCI closed higher by 4% to Rs 39.80 after it is planning to sell its partial stake in the National Stock Exchange and entire stake in financial services arm.

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7560 and above this 7610. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7495 and next support will be 7465.

WPI (Wholesale Price Index) UPDATE

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) measures the change in the price of goods sold by wholesalers. It shows the average price changes of goods sold in bulk, and they are a group of the indicators that follow growth in the economy.

May WPI inflation at 6.01% vs 5.2%, highest level since Dec 2013.

INDIAN BENCHMARK open lower on first trading day

INDIAN BENCHMARK open lower on first trading day of the week tracking weak global cues along with capital goods shares leading the fall.

FURTHER, Apollo Tyres plans to expand the manufacturing capacity for off-highway tyres by investing about Rs.400 crore in its Kerala plant. GAIL India is planning to reduce its equity stake in ONGC's mega petrochem project at Dahej to 11.6 %.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 192cr in the cash segment on Friday while the DIIs were net buyers of Rs. 358cr, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.

INDIAN BENCHMARKS drag by amid Iraq crisis

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS ended with a big fall with increase in crude oil prices amid increasing violence in Iraq. Brent crude oil hit a nine-month high near USD 115 a barrel as the United States threatened military action against Islamist militants who have taken towns and cities in Iraq, raising concerns over its oil exports.

Further, Hero MotoCorp is planning to enter Brazil by 2016 as it looks to consolidate position in the fast growing South American market. Lupin has launched its Ciprofloxacin for Oral Suspension, 5 g/100 mL and 10 g/100 mL in the US having received final approval from the FDA earlier.

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7670 and above this 7700. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7520 and next support will be 7475.

CS PERFORMANCE MESSAGE:

STOCK FUTURES:

FUTURES INTRADAY:

PETRONET FUTURES BUY CALL 3 TG

JAIN IRRIGATION FUTURES SELL CALL 3 TG

ADANIENT FUTURES BUY CALL 3 TG

ARVIND LTD FUTURES BUY CALL 1 TG

PREMIUM FUTURES:

IOC FUTURES SELL CALL 3 TG

BHEL FUTURES SELL CALL SL TRIGGERED

NIFTY FUTURES:

BANK NIFTY FUTURES SELL CALL 3 TG

NIFTY FUTURES SELL CALL 3 TG

OPTION:

YES BANK 540 PUT BUY CALL 3 TG

DLF 210 PUT BUY CALL 2 TG

BANK NIFTY 15500 CALL BUY CALL SL TRIGGERED

OPTION PREMIUM:

STOCK CASH:

STOCK CASH INTRADY:

HINDPETRO SELL CALL 3 TG

IGL SELL CALL 3 TG

RELIANCE INFRA SELL CALL 3 TG

JUBILANT LIFE SCIENCE BUY CALL 1 TG

BERGER PAINT SELL CALL COST EXIT

STOCK CASH PREMIUM:

ALLAHABAD BANK SELL CALL 2 TG

TOP CORPORATE NEWS

·        BPCL, HPCL shares surge on crude oil prices

Shares of Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and Indian Oil Corporation are down between 3-4% on increasing crude oil prices. Crude oil was near nine-month highs early as escalating civil war in Iraq.

·        L&T Construction wins orders worth Rs1027 Cr

L&T Construction has won new orders worth Rs1027 crore across various business segments in May and June 2014.

·        GAIL to invest Rs 141 cr in CNG highway corridor in UP

GAIL India Ltd signed an agreement to invest Rs 141 crore in building CNG highway corridors in Uttar Pradesh. GAIL Gas signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Uttar Pradesh State Industrial Development Corp.

·        IOB seeks Rs 3,500 crore capital support from govt

Indian Overseas Bank has requested the government to provide a capital support of Rs 3,500 crore during the current fiscal. Last fiscal, the government infused Rs 1,200 crore in the bank to enhance its capital base.