COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 13 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Indonesia’s ban on nickel ore exports is resonating globally as prices climb to the highest since 2012, prompting companies from Avebury Nickel Mines Ltd. to Poseidon Nickel Ltd. to restart operations at idled mines.

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate fell for a second day after an industry report showed crude and gasoline supplies expanded in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil user. Brent dropped in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold traded below a three-week high as investors weighed the prospects for renewed fighting in Gaza and simmering tension between Ukraine and Russia against the outlook for the U.S. economy and a stronger dollar. Gold imports by India, the world’s biggest consumer after China, will probably decline for a third year as the government keeps curbs on shipments to prevent the current-account deficit from widening and to support the rupee.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Prelim GDP q/q, New Loans, M2 Money Supply y/y, Industrial Production y/y, Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y, Retail Sales y/y, Average Earnings Index 3m/y, Claimant Count Change, BOE Gov Carney Speaks, BOE Inflation Report, Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m , FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, Business Inventories m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, 10-y Bond Auction.

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INDIAN BENCHMARKS mark second consecutive weekly fall on geopolitical concerns

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS flat-to-lower as investors eye global factors. Concerns about potential U.S. strikes on Iraq and tensions between the West and Russia are among geo-political risk factors.

·         Further, JSW Steel reported Crude Steel Production for July 2014, at 11.13 lac tonnes showing growth of 12% over corresponding month of previous year.

·         Corporation Bank  net profit slipped 38.8 percent year-on-year to Rs 231.4 crore in the quarter ended June 2014 dented by lower net interest income and other income, and higher provisions

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7600 and above this 7680. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7540 and next support will be 7460.

TOP CORPORATE NEWS 08 August 2014

·        SBI surprises street, Q1 profit rises 3% to Rs 3349 cr

State Bank of India surprised street with the first quarter (April-June) net profit rising 3.3 percent year-on-year to Rs 3,349 crore on higher net interest income though it was impacted by higher provisions, tax cost and lower other income. Net profit in the year-ago period was Rs 3,241.08 crore. The growth in profitability was for the first time in last six quarters.

·        M&M Q1 standalone profit beats estimate

Mahindra and Mahindra has reported a 4.3 percent growth in first quarter (April-June) profit at Rs 896.4 crore compared to Rs 859.8 crore in same quarter last year driven by operational performance.

·        Siemens bags orders from Reliance Industries for supply of steam turbines

Siemens announced that it has received orders for approximately Rs 228 crores from Reliance Industries Ltd for supply of four 600 Steam Turbogenerator units for its Jamnagar Refinery.

·        Chambal Fertilisers Q1 PAT declines 28% to Rs 80.8 cr

Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals Q1FY15 (April-June) net profit declined 28.5 percent to Rs 80.8 crore from Rs 113 crore in a year ago period. Net sales of the company were up 18 percent at Rs 1,994 crore versus Rs 1,687 crore, Y-o-Y.

INDIAN EQUITY MARKET STRATEGY- 08 August 2014

INDIAN BENCHMARK open in the negative territory tracking weakness in the global markets. Results will remain in focus, especially of SBI.

FURTHER, Apollo Tyres plans to raise about Rs 1,725 crore through issue of securities was today approved by the shareholders of the company. Reliance Communication has received Rs. 650 crore from Telecom Infrastructure Finance Private Limited equivalent to 50% of the issue price of the Equity.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 192cr in the cash segment on Thursday while the DIIs were net buyers of Rs. 228cr, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.

INDIAN BENCHMARKS ended with losses, highly volatile trading session… Nifty ends below 7650

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS fell second straight day with highly volatile trading session. The indices which flirted in the green zone for a while saw a sudden bout of selling in the second half.

·         Further, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.’s credit rating has been upgraded to AAA, by Credit Analysis & Research Ltd. (CARE). The rating agency assigned its highest ‘CARE AAA’ level of rating for the long-term bank facilities of M&M.

·         Bharti Infratel slumped 7.07%, as the floor price for offer for sale of shares by promoter Bharti Airtel was set at a discount to the stock's ruling market price.

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7750 and above this 7840. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7620 and next support will be 7595.

INDIAN EQUITY MARKET STRATEGY- 07 August 2014

INDIAN BENCHMARK open flat, following the cabinet plan to raise the amount of FDI in defence and railways industries. IT stocks could seem dip in sentiment after Cognizant lowered its revenue growth expectations for the full year to 14% from 16.5%.

FURTHER, Piramal Enterprises Ltd has posted a net profit of Rs. 28963.20 mn for the quarter ended June 30, 2014 as compared to Net Loss of Rs. (1466.60) mn for the quarter ended June 30, 2013. IDBI bank has posted a net profit of Rs. 1048.10 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2014 as compared to Rs. 3069.50 million for the quarter ended June 30, 2013.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 192cr in the cash segment on Wednesday while the DIIs were net buyers of Rs. 32cr, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.

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INDIAN BENCHMARKS fell on weak global cues.

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS fell over 1%, snapping two days of gains, as lenders slumped on worries that a sell-off in government bonds would hit the value of their debt holdings.

• Further, Infosys rose 2.01% on reports that three former executives have asked the company to buyback shares worth Rs11200 crore.

• Jindal Steel & Power Ltd has announced results for the quarter ended June 30, 2014.Net profit at Rs 306.27 crore vs Rs238.86 crore YoY. Total Income at Rs3605.78 crore vs Rs3431.45 crore YoY.

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7750 and above this 7840. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7640 and next support will be 7595. 

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INDIAN BENCHMARK open lower, following losses in global stocks.

 

The government is planning to sell 5% stake in SAIL and 10% each in RINL and HAL in the present fiscal.   FURTHER, Bata India declined 1.99% after net profit fell 4.1% to Rs 59.39 crore on 8.6% rise in net sales to Rs 621.58 crore in Q2 June 2014 over Q2 June 2013. 

Hero MotoCorp lost 1.88% after net profit rose 2.58% to Rs 562.76 crore on 14% increase in total income to Rs 7,149.59 crore in Q1 June 2014 over Q1 June 2013.   

Trend in FII flows: 

The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 192cr in the cash segment on Tuesday while the DIIs were net buyers of Rs. 62cr, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.

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INDIAN BENCHMARKS end higher…. RBI stays steady.

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS extended its upswing for the second consecutive day. The Reserve Bank of India, in its third bi-monthly monetary review for 2014-15 held today, kept the repo rate unchanged at 8%, while the reverse repo rate was remained stable at 7%.

• Further, Shares in Tata Communications ended lower by 2.5% after company has posted a net loss of Rs. (213.80) mn for the quarter ended June 30, 2014.

• Jubilant Life Sciences Limited has reported Consolidated revenue at Rs. 1,473 Crore, grew 8% YoY. International revenues at Rs. 1,051crore, contributed 71% to the overall mix.  EBITDA margins at 10.2% and PAT at 5 Crore.

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7790 and above this 7840. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7640 and next support will be 7595.

INDIAN BENCHMARKS surged ahead of RBI policy

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS surged one percent ahead of RBI policy tomorrow, recouping more than half of Friday’s losses. The rupee recovered too, up 25 paise to 60.93 a dollar compared to Friday's closing value.

·         Further, Bajaj Auto auto sales stood at 3, 19,292 units lac units in July as compared to 2,81,327 units YoY. The total motorcycle sales stood at 2, 67,841 units.

·         Indraprastha Gas Ltd has announced results for the quarter ended June 30, 2014.Net profit up 30.2% at Rs114.03 crore vs Rs87.58 crore YoY. Total Income down 3.09% at Rs876.5 crore vs Rs904.47 crore YoY.

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7695 and above this 7715. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7620 and next support will be 7595.

NEWS TO WATCH:

·         Watch out Quarterly Earnings of Ajanta Pharma, Bata India, Crompton Greaves, Hero Motocorp, Jubilant Life science, Tata Chemical on 5^th August 2014. 

INDIAN BENCHMARKS slumps on FII selling amid weak global cues

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS slumped in late trades, amid weak global cues, on aggressive selling by institutional investors on concerns that robust US jobs data due later today may give the US Federal Reserve much needed comfort to taper its bond buying program and end its easy money policy stance by raising rates sooner-than-expected.

• Further, Maruti Suzuki surged 2.5% after the company reported 21.7% increase in its total sales for July at 1,01,380 units as against 83,299 units in the same month last year.

• Hero MotoCorp despatched 529,862 units of two wheelers in month of July 2014, registering a growth of 9% over the corresponding month of the previous year, when the Company had sold 487,545 units.

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7715 and above this 7785. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7595 and next support will be 7530.

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CS PERFORMANCE MESSAGE

STOCK FUTURES:

FUTURES INTRADAY:

ARVIND LTD FUTURE BUY CALL 3TGT

UPL LTD FUTURE BUY CALL 3TGT

BHARTI AIRTEL FUTURE BUY CALL 2TGT

HUL FUTURE BUY CALL 1TGT

HAVELLS INDIA FUTURES SELL CALL BOOKED AT 1165

BHARAT FORGE FUTURE BUY CALL SL TRIGRRED

PREMIUM FUTURES:

TATA MOTORS FUTURE SELL CALL SL TRIGRRED

NIFTY FUTURES:

BANK NIFTY FUTURES BUY CALL 1 TG

NIFTY FUTURES SELL CALL BOOKED AT 7711

OPTION:

ARVIND LTD 225 CALL BUY CALL 3 TG

IDEA 150 CALL BUY CALL 3 TG

TATA MOTORS 450 PUT BUY CALL 1 TG

OPTION PREMIUM:

ARVIND LTD 230 CALL BUY CALL 3 TG

HUL 680 CALL BUY CALL 1 TG

STOCK CASH:

STOCK CASH INTRADAY:

INDICO REMEDIES BUY CALL 3 TG

COX & KING BUY CALL 1TGT (BOOKED AT 276.40),

APOLLO TYRE SELL CALL EXIT AT 171.50.

STOCK CASH PREMIUM:

CS PERFORMANCE MESSAGE:

STOCK FUTURES:

FUTURES INTRADAY:

TATA MOTORS DVR FUTURE SELL CALL 3TGT

CESC FUTURE SELL CALL 3TGT

DLF FUTURE SELL CALL 3TGT

PFC FUTURE SELL CALL 1TGT

HUL FUTURES BUY CALL 1TGT

SUN TV FUTURES SELL CALL 1TGT

PNB FUTURES BUY CALL BOOKED AT 951

HCL TECH FUTURE BUY CALL COST EXIT

HAVELLS INDIA FUTURE SELL CALL SL TRIGRRED

PREMIUM FUTURES:

TATA MOTORS DVR FUTURE SELL CALL 3TGT

NIFTY FUTURES:

BANK NIFTY FUTURES SELL CALL 2 TG

NIFTY FUTURES SELL CALL 1 TG

OPTION:

DLF 200 PUT BUY CALL 3 TG

TCS 2500 CALL BUY CALL 1 TG

OPTION PREMIUM:

STOCK CASH:

STOCK CASH INTRADAY:

ARVIND LTD SELL CALL 3 TG

GRANULES INDIA SELL CALL 2TGT

STOCK CASH PREMIUM:

GLENMARK PHARMA BUY CALL 1TGT

INDIAN BENCHMARKS snap 8 day rally… Nifty below 7800.

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS fell after hitting a record high for a third straight day as investors booked profits after majority of the quarterly earnings announced by corporate Inc disappointed.
•    Further, Colgate Palmolive India Ltd has announced results for the quarter ended June 30, 2014 net profit down 27.16% at Rs134.91 crore vs Rs185.22 crore YoY. Total Income up 9.86% at Rs963.35 crore vs Rs876.81 crore YoY.
•    The government plans to sell a 5% stake in state-run Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) this fiscal year ending March.

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7850 and above this 7880. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7750 and next support will be 7700.

   NEWS TO WATCH:

•    Watch out Quarterly Earnings of Bank of Baroda, Dabur India, L&T, HUL, Havells India, UPL on 28TH July 2014.

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INDIAN BENCHMARK record highs after Cabinet approval

INDIAN BENCHMARK record highs after Cabinet approval for a higher foreign direct investment limit in insurance and a rejig in foreign debt limits reinforced optimism about the government's reform agenda.

FURTHER, SKS Microfinance reported a flat net profit at Rs 49.3 crore in the April-June quarter over the year-ago period. The company had reported a net profit of Rs 49.69 crore during the same period last year. Tata Steel raised USD 1.5 billion (about Rs 9,000 crore) in a dual tranche bond sale in the international market, making it the largest such deal by the Tata group firm.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 192cr in the cash segment on Thursday while the DIIs were net seller of Rs. 290cr, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.

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INDIAN BENCHMARKS hit record high on FDI hike in insurance.

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS rose to a record high for a second straight session after cabinet approval for a higher FDI limit in insurance and a reorganization in foreign debt limits reinforced optimism about the government's reform agenda.

·         Further, Wipro has announced the results for the quarter ended June 30, 2014 net profit of the company rose by 54.49% to Rs 2067.20 crore Vs Rs 1338.00 crore YoY. Total Income increased by 18.62% to Rs 10574.50 crore Vs Rs 8914.30 crore YoY.

·         Ambuja Cements has announced results for the quarter ended June 30, 2014 net profit of the company rose by 26.06% to Rs 408.70 crore Vs Rs 324.20 crore YoY. Total Income increased by 16.61% to Rs 2858.14 crore Vs Rs 2450.91 crore YoY.

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7850 and above this 7880. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7770 and next support will be 7750.

 

NEWS TO WATCH:

·         Watch out Quarterly Earnings of Allahabad bank, Indian Bank, Just Dial, Kalindee Rail , PNB, UCO bank, Colgate, LIC Hsg Finance, Shriram Transport Finance  25^TH July 2014.