COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 21 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP:  

Copper prices are seen rebounding 8.4 percent as demand for the metal used in pipes and wiring expands amid signs of tightening supplies, Standard Chartered Plc forecasts. Aluminum in London retreated from a six-month high as industrial metals declined after worse-than-expected manufacturing data from China, the biggest consumer.

ENERGY WRAP: 

West Texas Intermediate swung between gains and losses as U.S. crude stockpiles fell and a measure of China’s manufacturing missed estimates. Brent was steady in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: 

Gold fell for a fifth day, poised for the longest slump since June, as minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting signaled that policy makers may increase borrowing costs earlier than expected. Platinum headed for the longest losing run in 27 years.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH:  

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, Retail Sales m/m, Unemployment Claims, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Existing Home Sales, CB Leading Index m/m, Natural Gas Storage, Jackson Hole Symposium.

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Morning Mail Upadate 21 August 2014

INDIAN BENCHMARK open on a flat note tracking a mostly weak trend across markets in Asia as a sharp slowdown in China’s manufacturing underscored concerns over the health of the world’s second biggest economy, overshadowing Federal Reserve’s commitment to continue to keep interest rates low.

FURTHER, DLF Ltd is planning to reduce debt to Rs 12,000-14,000 crore by FY17 through asset monetization. Reliance Infrastructure has filed an appeal in the Appellate Tribunal for Electricity against the Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission pleading a stay on its recent order in change-over and switchover of its consumers to Tata Power in the Mumbai distribution area.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 192cr in the cash segment on Friday while the DIIs were net sellers of Rs. 481cr, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.

COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 20 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Aluminium and zinc rose in London as a jump in home building fueled speculation that demand will accelerate in the U.S., the world’s second-biggest consumer of industrial metals.

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate swung between gains and losses amid speculation that crude and fuel inventories fell in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent was steady in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold held below $1,300 an ounce after retreating for three days on signs that the U.S. recovery is gathering momentum without generating higher consumer prices. Platinum traded near a two-month low.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: RBA Gov Stevens Speaks, Trade Balance, All Industries Activity m/m, MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes, MPC Official Bank Rate Votes, Wholesale Sales m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC Meeting Minutes.

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INDIAN BENCHMARK open flat after a day of closing at a fresh record high.

INDIAN BENCHMARK open flat after a day of closing at a fresh record high. Shares of Eros International Media touched 33-month high of Rs 249.80, up as much as 9.6 percent after the company's on-demand entertainment portal ErosNow has acquired the worldwide rights of popular Zee TV shows.

FURTHER, Just Dial rose over 3%, after the company's board approved increasing the shareholding limit of foreign institutional investors in the company to 75% from 49% . Glenmark Pharmaceuticals announced the discovery and initiation of IND enabling studies of a novel clinical development candidate, GBR 1302, a HER2xCD3 bispecific antibody.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 192cr in the cash segment on Tuesday while the DIIs were net sellers of Rs. 262cr, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.

                                                                                                          

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Top Corporate News 18 August 2014

• Jubilant FoodWorks surges as Bofa start with Buy rating

Jubilant Food Works rose nearly 6%, after Bank of America Merrill Lynch starts coverage with a Buy rating and a target of Rs1,375. The company in a sweet spot in the large and high-growth quick service restaurants market.

• ITC slips on buzz of anti-tobacco laws

ITC fell nearly 3% on reports the Centre is planning to introduce tougher provisions under law to curb tobacco consumption in the country.

• Tata Motors jumps 3% on JLR July sales

Shares of Tata Motors jumped 3 percent, riding on its Jaguar Land Rover July sales number. The luxury car business sold 39467 units (up 12.2 percent) as compared to 35162 units in the same period last fiscal.

• Tata Power jumps 4%, MERC grants 25-yr distribution licence

Shares of Tata Power jumped over 4 percent as state electricity regulator Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission (MERC) has granted 25 years distribution licence to Tata Power for supplying power in city and suburban areas.

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TOP CORPORATE NEWS 14 August 2014

• Hindalco Q1 profit drops 31% on high fuel, finance cost

Hindalco Industries missed street expectations with the first quarter net profit falling 30.9 percent year-on-year to Rs 327.5 crore dented by higher power and fuel, finance, and raw material costs. Profit in the corresponding quarter of last fiscal was Rs 474.1 crore.

• Voltas jumps after strong Q1 results

Voltas surged 7.58% after consolidated net profit jumped 165.85% to Rs 109 crore on 9.36% growth in sales to Rs 1752 crore in Q1 June 2014 over Q1 June 2013.

• PFC Q1 net profit up 21% YoY

PFC has announced the results for the quarter ended June 30, 2014 net profit of the company rose by 20.86% to Rs 1448.26 crore Vs Rs 1198.24 crore YoY. Total Income increased by 18.07% to Rs 5923.90 crore Vs Rs 5017.10 crore YoY.

• United Breweries Q1 net profit up 6.51% YoY

United Breweries has announced the results for the quarter ended June 30, 2014 net profit of the company rose by 6.51% to Rs 128.84 crore Vs Rs 120.96 crore YoY. Total Income increased by 7% to Rs 1456.94 crore Vs Rs 1361.56 crore YoY.

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COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 08 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Copper headed for a second weekly decline after imports by China, the biggest user of the metal, fell to the lowest since April 2013.

ENERGY WRAP: Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude climbed for a second day after U.S. President Barack Obama authorized air strikes in Iraq, the second-biggest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold advanced to the highest level in three weeks, poised to snap the longest run of weekly losses since September, as haven demand increased on unrest in the Middle East and tension over Ukraine.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Consumer Credit m/m, RBA Monetary Policy Statement, Trade Balance, Monetary Policy Statement, BOJ Press Conference, Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q, Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q, Wholesale Inventories m/m.

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TOP CORPORATE NEWS

·        Jubilant Food Q1 net down 19%, same store sales contracts

Jubilant Foodworks has first quarter (April-June) net profit falling 18.5 percent to Rs 27.7 crore compared to Rs 34 crore in the year-ago period, impacted by weak operational performance.

·        India Cements Q1 cuts loss to Rs 3 cr

India Cements has posted a net loss of Rs 2.96 crore in the quarter ended June 2014 as against profit of Rs 16.8 crore in the year-ago period but the loss was reduced compared to loss of 30.56 crore in January-March quarter.

·        Jubilant Industries drops on poor Q1 nos

Jubilant Industries slipped nearly 17% after reporting a consolidated net loss of Rs18.90 crore for the first quarter ended June 30, 2014 (Q1), due to lower operational income and higher interest cost. The agrochemicals company had loss of Rs16.96 crore in the same quarter last fiscal.

·        Rail stocks suge after Cabinet clears 100% FDI in railways

Shares of railways have rallied after the Union Cabinet cleared the proposal to allow 100% foreign direct investment (FDI) in railway infrastructure.

COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 07 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP:  

Copper prices fell to their lowest level in more than five weeks Wednesday, pressured by a stronger dollar and concerns about growth in China, the world's largest consumer of the metal.

ENERGY WRAP: 

West Texas Intermediate crude swung between gains and losses near a six-month low before trade data that will signal the strength of the economy in China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer. Brent was steady.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: 

Gold held gains after the biggest advance in three weeks as tensions flared over Ukraine, increasing demand for a haven. Palladium climbed.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: 

Employment Change q/q, Unemployment Rate, Asset Purchase Facility, Official Bank Rate, MPC Rate Statement, Minimum Bid Rate, Building Permits m/m, ECB Press Conference, Unemployment Claims, Ivey PMI, Natural Gas Storage.

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COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 06 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: London copper fell to its lowest level in two weeks and Shanghai prices slid nearly 1 percent, reflecting investor caution as weakness in China's services sector cast doubts on its economic recovery momentum.

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate rose for a second time in three days after an industry report showed crude stockpiles declined in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil user. Brent climbed in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Silver futures fell to a six-week low as the dollar’s advance reduced the appeal of commodities as alternative investments. Gold, platinum and palladium dropped.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Employment Change q/q, Unemployment Rate, Manufacturing Production m/m, Trade Balance, Trade Balance, Crude Oil Inventories.

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COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 05 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Copper rose on Monday as a rally in China's stock markets indicated improving prospects for demand in the world's largest consumer of the industrial metal, although growing global supplies kept investors cautious.

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the highest price in three days before supply data that will signal the strength of fuel demand in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent in London was steady.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold held below $1,300 an ounce as Portugal’s bailout of Banco Espirito Santo SA reduced concern the lender’s crisis may spread and tension in Gaza eased, damping demand for a haven. Silver rose from a six-week low.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Trade Balance, HSBC Services PMI, Cash Rate, RBA Rate Statement, Services PMI, Final Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders m/m, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism.

Sensex hovers around 25,600; auto stocks gain

Rate sensitives gain ahead of RBI's policy review tomorrow

Markets were firm in early noon trades supported by gains in interest sensitives ahead of RBI's policy review tomorrow. At 1205 hrs, the Sensex was up 132 points at 25,613 and the Nifty gained 50 points to trade at 7,652.

In the broader market, the smallcap index outperformed the BSE benchmark with gains of 1%. Meanwhile, the midcap index was up 0.6%.

The rupee is trading at 60.90/91 versus Friday's close of 61.18/19, tracking losses in the dollar compared with most other Asian currencies. The pair is seen in 60.80 to 61.20 range during the session.

Sectors & Stocks

Health Care index down 0.2% was the only sectoral index in red.
Consumer Durables, Auto, IT indices were up 1-2.5%.
Banking index up 0.5% have come off day highs.
HDFC twins, Sun Pharma, Coal India, Bharti Airtel and Cipla down 0.8-1.7% were the losers among Sensex-30.

COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 04 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: London copper was a tad firmer on Monday after weak U.S. employment data soothed concerns that the Federal Reserve would soon begin to draw back liquidity that has cushioned demand for metals.

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the lowest price in six months before data that will signal the strength of the economy in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent was steady in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: A slew of worries fueled by U.S. and European data, Argentina's default on its debts and conflict in Ukraine and in the Middle East sent investors rushing to safe-harbor gold positions on Friday.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Retail Sales m/m, Construction PMI, Loan Officer Survey.

COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 01 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: London copper eased on Friday after a rout on Wall Street over Argentinian default soured risk appetite and ahead of a deluge of economic indicators out later in the session, including an assessment of activity in China's vast manufacturing sector.

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate fell for a fifth day after capping the biggest monthly decline in more than two years amid signs of weaker fuel demand in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent was steady in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold headed for a third weekly loss in the longest run of declines since September as U.S. employment data may add to signs that the world’s largest economy is gaining traction.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Manufacturing PMI, PPI q/q, HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI, BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks, Manufacturing PMI, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Core PCE Price Index m/m, Personal Spending m/m, Personal Income m/m, Final Manufacturing PMI, Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Total Vehicle Sales.

CS PERFORMANCE MESSAGE

STOCK FUTURES:

FUTURES INTRADAY:

ARVIND LTD FUTURE BUY CALL 3TGT

UPL LTD FUTURE BUY CALL 3TGT

BHARTI AIRTEL FUTURE BUY CALL 2TGT

HUL FUTURE BUY CALL 1TGT

HAVELLS INDIA FUTURES SELL CALL BOOKED AT 1165

BHARAT FORGE FUTURE BUY CALL SL TRIGRRED

PREMIUM FUTURES:

TATA MOTORS FUTURE SELL CALL SL TRIGRRED

NIFTY FUTURES:

BANK NIFTY FUTURES BUY CALL 1 TG

NIFTY FUTURES SELL CALL BOOKED AT 7711

OPTION:

ARVIND LTD 225 CALL BUY CALL 3 TG

IDEA 150 CALL BUY CALL 3 TG

TATA MOTORS 450 PUT BUY CALL 1 TG

OPTION PREMIUM:

ARVIND LTD 230 CALL BUY CALL 3 TG

HUL 680 CALL BUY CALL 1 TG

STOCK CASH:

STOCK CASH INTRADAY:

INDICO REMEDIES BUY CALL 3 TG

COX & KING BUY CALL 1TGT (BOOKED AT 276.40),

APOLLO TYRE SELL CALL EXIT AT 171.50.

STOCK CASH PREMIUM:

CS PERFORMANCE MESSAGE:

STOCK FUTURES:

FUTURES INTRADAY:

TATA MOTORS DVR FUTURE SELL CALL 3TGT

CESC FUTURE SELL CALL 3TGT

DLF FUTURE SELL CALL 3TGT

PFC FUTURE SELL CALL 1TGT

HUL FUTURES BUY CALL 1TGT

SUN TV FUTURES SELL CALL 1TGT

PNB FUTURES BUY CALL BOOKED AT 951

HCL TECH FUTURE BUY CALL COST EXIT

HAVELLS INDIA FUTURE SELL CALL SL TRIGRRED

PREMIUM FUTURES:

TATA MOTORS DVR FUTURE SELL CALL 3TGT

NIFTY FUTURES:

BANK NIFTY FUTURES SELL CALL 2 TG

NIFTY FUTURES SELL CALL 1 TG

OPTION:

DLF 200 PUT BUY CALL 3 TG

TCS 2500 CALL BUY CALL 1 TG

OPTION PREMIUM:

STOCK CASH:

STOCK CASH INTRADAY:

ARVIND LTD SELL CALL 3 TG

GRANULES INDIA SELL CALL 2TGT

STOCK CASH PREMIUM:

GLENMARK PHARMA BUY CALL 1TGT

INDIAN BENCHMARKS snap 8 day rally… Nifty below 7800.

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS fell after hitting a record high for a third straight day as investors booked profits after majority of the quarterly earnings announced by corporate Inc disappointed.
•    Further, Colgate Palmolive India Ltd has announced results for the quarter ended June 30, 2014 net profit down 27.16% at Rs134.91 crore vs Rs185.22 crore YoY. Total Income up 9.86% at Rs963.35 crore vs Rs876.81 crore YoY.
•    The government plans to sell a 5% stake in state-run Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) this fiscal year ending March.

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7850 and above this 7880. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7750 and next support will be 7700.

   NEWS TO WATCH:

•    Watch out Quarterly Earnings of Bank of Baroda, Dabur India, L&T, HUL, Havells India, UPL on 28TH July 2014.

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INDIAN BENCHMARKS hit record high on FDI hike in insurance.

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS rose to a record high for a second straight session after cabinet approval for a higher FDI limit in insurance and a reorganization in foreign debt limits reinforced optimism about the government's reform agenda.

·         Further, Wipro has announced the results for the quarter ended June 30, 2014 net profit of the company rose by 54.49% to Rs 2067.20 crore Vs Rs 1338.00 crore YoY. Total Income increased by 18.62% to Rs 10574.50 crore Vs Rs 8914.30 crore YoY.

·         Ambuja Cements has announced results for the quarter ended June 30, 2014 net profit of the company rose by 26.06% to Rs 408.70 crore Vs Rs 324.20 crore YoY. Total Income increased by 16.61% to Rs 2858.14 crore Vs Rs 2450.91 crore YoY.

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7850 and above this 7880. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7770 and next support will be 7750.

 

NEWS TO WATCH:

·         Watch out Quarterly Earnings of Allahabad bank, Indian Bank, Just Dial, Kalindee Rail , PNB, UCO bank, Colgate, LIC Hsg Finance, Shriram Transport Finance  25^TH July 2014.