COMMODITY MARKET STRATEGY 13 AUGUST 2014

BASE METAL WRAP: Indonesia’s ban on nickel ore exports is resonating globally as prices climb to the highest since 2012, prompting companies from Avebury Nickel Mines Ltd. to Poseidon Nickel Ltd. to restart operations at idled mines.

ENERGY WRAP: West Texas Intermediate fell for a second day after an industry report showed crude and gasoline supplies expanded in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil user. Brent dropped in London.

PRECIOUS METAL WRAP: Gold traded below a three-week high as investors weighed the prospects for renewed fighting in Gaza and simmering tension between Ukraine and Russia against the outlook for the U.S. economy and a stronger dollar. Gold imports by India, the world’s biggest consumer after China, will probably decline for a third year as the government keeps curbs on shipments to prevent the current-account deficit from widening and to support the rupee.

GLOBAL EVENTS TO WATCH: Prelim GDP q/q, New Loans, M2 Money Supply y/y, Industrial Production y/y, Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y, Retail Sales y/y, Average Earnings Index 3m/y, Claimant Count Change, BOE Gov Carney Speaks, BOE Inflation Report, Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m , FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, Business Inventories m/m, Crude Oil Inventories, 10-y Bond Auction.

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INDIAN BENCHMARKS mark second consecutive weekly fall on geopolitical concerns

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS flat-to-lower as investors eye global factors. Concerns about potential U.S. strikes on Iraq and tensions between the West and Russia are among geo-political risk factors.

·         Further, JSW Steel reported Crude Steel Production for July 2014, at 11.13 lac tonnes showing growth of 12% over corresponding month of previous year.

·         Corporation Bank  net profit slipped 38.8 percent year-on-year to Rs 231.4 crore in the quarter ended June 2014 dented by lower net interest income and other income, and higher provisions

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7600 and above this 7680. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7540 and next support will be 7460.

INDIAN BENCHMARKS ended with losses, highly volatile trading session… Nifty ends below 7650

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS fell second straight day with highly volatile trading session. The indices which flirted in the green zone for a while saw a sudden bout of selling in the second half.

·         Further, Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd.’s credit rating has been upgraded to AAA, by Credit Analysis & Research Ltd. (CARE). The rating agency assigned its highest ‘CARE AAA’ level of rating for the long-term bank facilities of M&M.

·         Bharti Infratel slumped 7.07%, as the floor price for offer for sale of shares by promoter Bharti Airtel was set at a discount to the stock's ruling market price.

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7750 and above this 7840. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7620 and next support will be 7595.

Weak global cues drag Sensex lower by 150 pts

Markets started the August series on a negative note with the Sensex down over 150 points owing to weak global cues. Selling pressure was visible across the sectors.

At 0920 hrs, the Sensex was down 159 points at 25,736 and the Nifty was down 55 points at 7,666.

The broader markets were no exception to the trend. The mid and smallcap indices dropped 0.7% in opening trades.

Sectors & Stocks

Power, Realty and capital Goods indices down 1% each were the major sectoral losers.

IT, Auto, Consumer Durables, Oil & Gas and Bankex indices slipped a little over 0.5% each.

Only six of the 30 stocks were in green on the Sensex.

Bharti Airtel up 2.5% continued its uptrend on reports that the company will sell more infrastructure in Africa. This is to reduce debt and cut capital expenditure on passive infrastructure.

Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki, Cipla, Coal India and Hero MotoCorp up 0.2-0.7% rounded off the gainers list.

The market breadth was weak on the BSE. 906 stocks declined while 483 stocks advanced.

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CS PERFORMANCE MESSAGE: 31 July 2014

STOCK FUTURES:

FUTURES INTRADAY:

ARVIND LTD FUTURE SELL CALL 3TGT

UPL LTD FUTURE BUY CALL 3TGT

IRB INFRA FUTURE BUY CALL 2TGT

HCL TECH FUTURE SELL CALL 1TGT

NTPC FUTURE SELL CALL COST EXIT

MARUTI FUTURE SELL CALL COST EXIT

PREMIUM FUTURES:

NIFTY FUTURES:

NIFTY FUTURES SELL CALL 2TGT

OPTION:

DABUR INDIA 200 CALL BUY CALL 3 TG

AUROBINDO PHARMA 680 CALL 1TGT

CIPLA 450 CALL BUY CALL 1TGT

OPTION PREMIUM:

STOCK CASH:

STOCK CASH INTRADAY:

SUN TV BUY CALL 3 TG

INDOCO REMEDIES BUY CALL 3TGT

ABAN OFFSHORE BUY CALL 2TGT.

STOCK CASH PREMIUM:

CS PERFORMANCE MESSAGE:

STOCK FUTURES:

FUTURES INTRADAY:

TATA MOTORS DVR FUTURE SELL CALL 3TGT

CESC FUTURE SELL CALL 3TGT

DLF FUTURE SELL CALL 3TGT

PFC FUTURE SELL CALL 1TGT

HUL FUTURES BUY CALL 1TGT

SUN TV FUTURES SELL CALL 1TGT

PNB FUTURES BUY CALL BOOKED AT 951

HCL TECH FUTURE BUY CALL COST EXIT

HAVELLS INDIA FUTURE SELL CALL SL TRIGRRED

PREMIUM FUTURES:

TATA MOTORS DVR FUTURE SELL CALL 3TGT

NIFTY FUTURES:

BANK NIFTY FUTURES SELL CALL 2 TG

NIFTY FUTURES SELL CALL 1 TG

OPTION:

DLF 200 PUT BUY CALL 3 TG

TCS 2500 CALL BUY CALL 1 TG

OPTION PREMIUM:

STOCK CASH:

STOCK CASH INTRADAY:

ARVIND LTD SELL CALL 3 TG

GRANULES INDIA SELL CALL 2TGT

STOCK CASH PREMIUM:

GLENMARK PHARMA BUY CALL 1TGT

Commodity market with free Mcx Tips

Commodity market is being divided into two major groups; they are differentiated on the basis of the mode of trading that is the physical trading where the metals are actually bought and sold and are also immediately being delivered. Whereas the other group is the derivative trading where the products are being traded in the future contracts, where the date of delivery is decided upon for a future date.
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INDIAN BENCHMARKS snap 8 day rally… Nifty below 7800.

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS fell after hitting a record high for a third straight day as investors booked profits after majority of the quarterly earnings announced by corporate Inc disappointed.
•    Further, Colgate Palmolive India Ltd has announced results for the quarter ended June 30, 2014 net profit down 27.16% at Rs134.91 crore vs Rs185.22 crore YoY. Total Income up 9.86% at Rs963.35 crore vs Rs876.81 crore YoY.
•    The government plans to sell a 5% stake in state-run Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) this fiscal year ending March.

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7850 and above this 7880. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7750 and next support will be 7700.

   NEWS TO WATCH:

•    Watch out Quarterly Earnings of Bank of Baroda, Dabur India, L&T, HUL, Havells India, UPL on 28TH July 2014.

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TOP CORPORATE NEWS 25 July 2014

• PNB Q1 profit beats forecast, up 10% but asset quality weak

Punjab National Bank net profit jumped 10.2 percent on yearly basis to Rs 1,405 crore on account of fall in provisions but decline in other income limited the profitability .The asset quality worsened during April-June quarter of current financial year 2014-15. The bank reported growth in profit for the first time in last four quarters.

• Shriram Transport Finance Q1 PAT drops 10% to Rs 306 cr

Shriram Transport Finance Corporation April-June quarter (Q1FY15) net profit declined by 10 percent to Rs 306 crore from Rs 341 crore in corresponding quarter of last fiscal. However, total income was up by 6 percent to Rs 2,015.8 crore from Rs 1,891.3 crore, Y-o-Y.

• UCO Bank Q1 profit up 2%, other income falls significantly

UCO Bank has reported a net profit of Rs 520 crore in the first quarter (April-June) of current financial year, increased marginally (1.7 percent) compared to Rs 511 crore in same quarter last year on account of significant fall in other income that was the reason behind fall in share price.

• Allahabad Bank Q1 net profit tanks 73% but NII rises 23%

Allahabad Bank reported a 72.7 percent decline in net profit at Rs 112.7 crore in April-June quarter (Q1FY15) compared to Rs 413 crore in same quarter last year on account of higher provisions, tax cost and fall in other income but net interest income growth was very strong.

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INDIAN BENCHMARK record highs after Cabinet approval

INDIAN BENCHMARK record highs after Cabinet approval for a higher foreign direct investment limit in insurance and a rejig in foreign debt limits reinforced optimism about the government's reform agenda.

FURTHER, SKS Microfinance reported a flat net profit at Rs 49.3 crore in the April-June quarter over the year-ago period. The company had reported a net profit of Rs 49.69 crore during the same period last year. Tata Steel raised USD 1.5 billion (about Rs 9,000 crore) in a dual tranche bond sale in the international market, making it the largest such deal by the Tata group firm.

Trend in FII flows: The FIIs were net buyers of Rs 192cr in the cash segment on Thursday while the DIIs were net seller of Rs. 290cr, as per the provisional figures released by the NSE.

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INDIAN BENCHMARKS hit record high on FDI hike in insurance.

INDIAN EQUITY BENCHMARKS rose to a record high for a second straight session after cabinet approval for a higher FDI limit in insurance and a reorganization in foreign debt limits reinforced optimism about the government's reform agenda.

·         Further, Wipro has announced the results for the quarter ended June 30, 2014 net profit of the company rose by 54.49% to Rs 2067.20 crore Vs Rs 1338.00 crore YoY. Total Income increased by 18.62% to Rs 10574.50 crore Vs Rs 8914.30 crore YoY.

·         Ambuja Cements has announced results for the quarter ended June 30, 2014 net profit of the company rose by 26.06% to Rs 408.70 crore Vs Rs 324.20 crore YoY. Total Income increased by 16.61% to Rs 2858.14 crore Vs Rs 2450.91 crore YoY.

The crucial resistance for Nifty is now seen at 7850 and above this 7880. Support for the immediate term is now placed at 7770 and next support will be 7750.

 

NEWS TO WATCH:

·         Watch out Quarterly Earnings of Allahabad bank, Indian Bank, Just Dial, Kalindee Rail , PNB, UCO bank, Colgate, LIC Hsg Finance, Shriram Transport Finance  25^TH July 2014.